The Beauty Of Chaos

Lori R. Hodges, Director of Emergency Management for Larimer County, Colorado

Lori R. Hodges, Director of Emergency Management for Larimer County, Colorado

As a paramedic, I believed that every problem had a solution – you just had to deconstruct the problem to find it. But now that I am in the field of emergency management, I have learned that few problems have simple answers, and I am no longer able to break down the problem into individual parts to see the solution. Instead, the complex problem is wrapped up in a network of people, processes, technology, politics and even emotion. Any change to one part has an effect on another, altering the entire system. Additionally, as we have seen time and again, one decision made with the best of intentions can lead us straight into a whirlwind of trouble that replaces that one problem with several more.

The idea of chaos in our work is often daunting. If we do not control our environment, we can easily fall off that slippery slope into chaos, where alligators and shark-infested waters await. But in reality, the idea of complexity in emergency management is quite freeing. No longer are we forced to fit in a box. Instead, we are free to take all available information, analyze it, synthesize it, and come up with reasonable expectations of a path forward, knowing we must be on our toes for changes throughout the process. There are patterns and lessons that have been learned that can adequately guide us into new waters, but we have to be willing to work through the chaos instead of trying to control it.

Planning for the Unknown – We all have SOPs and guidance documents that we use in our work. For example, an emergency plan is often based upon a known event such as flooding, a hurricane, or a wildfire. But what happens when the unknown occurs or when a known event decides to go off script and do something we haven't seen before? We cannot predict or control our environment, and therefore we cannot have a plan that covers every eventuality. If we are faced with a world of unpredictability, hazards no longer seem as important as the processes that are developed to move through an event. Build processes around those things that will always be necessary: resource management, public information management, policy direction, situational awareness and Emergency Operations Center coordination. This allows the organization to move in a world of unpredictability and effectively face the next unknown that comes to town.

Training to Failure – When asked to facilitate an exercise, I am inevitably asked to avoid topics that may cause conflict. I am directed to ignore the big elephant in the room and tiptoe around the problem that most needs to be addressed. Instead, I argue that the exercise should test that specific problem above all others and see where it cracks. That's right - as an ex-paramedic I want participants of my exercises to be bleeding or crying at the end of the day (not profusely, just a few cuts and scrapes as war wounds to show they survived). I want to stress the system to the point of failure so that I know where to start the hard work the next day. Now, I obviously don’t start here – I build the exercises up over time to get to a level of complexity where failure should be the goal. But failure should ultimately be your goal. No system will know where it will crack on a real incident unless you thoroughly test it during an exercise. Let the people in the room know that this is what you are doing and ensure they understand that failure is a part of the process. This will lead to success without crushing the souls of those in the room trying their best to succeed. I guarantee they will thank you for it when the unmanageable and unpredictable event occurs.

"No system will know where it will crack on a real incident unless you thoroughly test it during an exercise"

Adaptability and Flexibility - When using a Chaos Theory approach to emergency management, there will also be some inevitable pain for those that still want to have answers to all questions. We will never have all the answers and must therefore create a system that adapts over time. Remember that your goal is to move through the chaos and not try to control it, so giving the people you work with guidance on how to move through the unknown is critical, and much like training to failure, it is important to let them know that mistakes will be part of the game. When dealing with the unpredictable, decisions will have to be made off of available data that will later prove to be faulty. Adapt. Overcome.

Unintentional Consequences - Finally, with complex decision making, there is always the chance that a decision will have unforeseen consequences that will later have to be addressed as a new problem or challenge. While moving through our unpredictable environment, we also have to be acutely aware of the unintended consequences of our actions. Sometimes those consequences are unfortunate but also the only real option. Other times, we can avoid a future cascade of failures if we plan for consequences while making our decisions.

In summary:

1. Complex problems cannot be deconstructed to find the solution. There are too many variables.

2. Move through the chaos instead of trying to control it because life is an unpredictable affair.

3. In order to get stronger, embrace failure and train others to embrace it as well.

4. Watch out for those unintended consequences as they may lead to a cascade of failures that is difficult to stop once started.

5. Finally, roll with it, because as we have seen all too often, it can always get worse.

Our world has become increasingly more complex, and our disasters are teaching us lessons we have not had to learn in the past. The time is right to break out of the chains that have been our building blocks in this field in the past and to look toward a new future filled with glorious unpredictability and the beauty of chaos.